The Sound Line

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SeahawksWeek 9Novig prices

Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks

Arizona Cardinals (3-5-0) at Seattle Seahawks (4-4-0) · Lumen Field · Week 9

Seattle Seahawks is favored at -376 with the spread at Seattle Seahawks -8.5 and the total at 39.5.

Lumen Field
Lumen Field. Photo: dennis22photos, CC BY-SA 3.0
Preview

Cardinals at Seahawks: Short-Handed Seattle Hosts Arizona at Lumen Field

With Sam Darnold and Quenton Nelson reportedly ruled out, a .500 Seattle team leans on its depth against a 3-5 Arizona side on Sunday afternoon.

The Seahawks enter Sunday at 4-4 with a chance to climb above .500, but they will try to do it without several regulars. According to reports from ESPN, quarterback Sam Darnold and guard Quenton Nelson are among the starters ruled out against the Cardinals, and Heavy.com reports that Seattle has ruled out a three-time Pro Bowler along with three other key starters. Bleacher Report reports that Nelson has undergone surgery on a knee injury. Multiple outlets describe the final injury report as a troubling one, which turns a home game against a losing team into a real test of depth.

Arizona arrives at 3-5 for the 4:25 PM ET kickoff at Lumen Field, broadcast on Fox. A loss would push the Cardinals further down the standings, while Seattle has a chance to separate itself from a division opponent despite the absences.

With Darnold out, Drew Lock is on the prop board with a passing yards line of 202.5, and Gardner Minshew II is set at 199.5 on the other side. Jaxon Smith-Njigba carries the highest receiving line on the board at 92.5 yards, a sign of how much the offense is expected to run through him. Zach Charbonnet's rushing line sits at 34.5. For Arizona, tight end Trey McBride is listed at 60.5 receiving yards and Michael Wilson at 45.5. Jadarian Price and Tyler Allgeier round out the rushing board at 55.5 and 48.5 yards.

The market still has Seattle as a clear favorite despite the injury list, with the Seahawks giving 8.5 points and the total set at 38.5. That low number points to an expectation of a grinding, lower-scoring afternoon with two backup-caliber passers on the field.

Prices

12 venues · refreshed every 10 min
VenueMoneylineSpreadTotal
ARISEAARISEAOverUnder
NovigNovig+365-376+8.5-100-8.5-10239.5-10439.5+102
DraftKingsDraftKings+340-440+8.5-110-8.5-11039.5-11239.5-108
FanDuelFanDuel+350-450+8.5-110-8.5-11039.5-11039.5-106
BetMGMBetMGM+333-425+8.5-110-8.5-10839.5-11039.5-108
bet365bet365+340-440+8.5-109-8.5-11139.5-11039.5-110
BetRiversBetRivers+325-435+8.5-113-8.5-10839.5-10839.5-113
Hard Rock BetHard Rock Bet+325-450+8.5-110-8.5-11039.5-11039.5-110
theScore BettheScore Bet+320-425+8.5-110-8.5-11039.5-11039.5-110
FanaticsFanatics+325-425+8.5-110-8.5-11039.5-11039.5-110
PinnaclePinnacle+329-395+8.5-102-8.5-10839.5-10539.5-107
KalshiKalshi+331-404––––
PolymarketPolymarket+344-388––––

Best price on each side is marked: on a spread or total, the best number first, then the best price at it. Kalshi and Polymarket are shown after their fees.

Player props

Main lines at the sportsbooks, best price on each side.

PlayerLineOverUnder
Gardner Minshew II
Passing yards
199.5+108Novig-113FanDuel
Drew Lock
Passing yards
198.5-110Pinnacle-110Pinnacle
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Receiving yards
94.5-110Pinnacle-110Pinnacle
Trey McBride
Receiving yards
59.5-113FanDuel-102Pinnacle
Michael Wilson
Receiving yards
48.5-108Novig-110Pinnacle
Cooper Kupp
Receiving yards
25.5+109Pinnacle-120Novig
AJ Barner
Receiving yards
25.5-108DraftKings-116DraftKings
Tory Horton
Receiving yards
17.5-108Pinnacle+104Novig
Tyler Allgeier
Receiving yards
16.5+106Novig-111Novig
Reggie Virgil
Receiving yards
14.5-100Novig-108Novig
Elijah Higgins
Receiving yards
13.5-108Novig-104Novig
Jadarian Price
Receiving yards
9.5-104Novig-106Novig

The Sharp Desk on this game

All picks
Lou
Veteran market maker
Pending
Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks· Sun, Nov 8 · 4:25 PM ET
Spread
Arizona Cardinals +8.5
-106
Novig

A 4-4 team laying 8.5 is a lot of number, kid, and the headlines say injuries are mounting, with Quenton Nelson reported out. You get past 7, past 8, and a half-point most shops won't give you, at -106. Cardinals plus the points, that's the side with value.

Lou
Veteran market maker
Pending
Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks· Sun, Nov 8 · 4:25 PM ET
Total
Under 39.5
-106
FanDuel

The market's split, with 38.5 on one side and 39.5 on the other, so take the high number and sell it. Under 39.5 at -106 keeps 38 and 39 on your side, and a banged-up home offense doesn't argue with me. I watched totals sit in this exact gap in '94 too. Under.

Lou
Veteran market maker
Pending
Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks· Sun, Nov 8 · 4:25 PM ET
Player pick · Passing yards
Gardner Minshew II over 199.5 passing yards
+108
Novig

Minshew at 199.5 is priced like a coin flip, and you're getting +108 on it, roughly 48 percent implied. If Arizona is chasing an 8-point number, the ball goes in the air. Plus money on a fair line is the only kind I like. Over.

The Quant
Ex hedge-fund quant
Pending
Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks· Sun, Nov 8 · 4:25 PM ET
Spread
Arizona Cardinals +8.5
-106
Novig

The market implies about 49% that Arizona covers 8.5 once the margin is removed. I have it nearer 54%, because an eight-point spread is a large number for a 4-4 team that, by multiple reports, has several starters out, including Quenton Nelson with a reported knee issue. A five-point gap is worth holding; confirmation that the injured players are active would close it.

The Quant
Ex hedge-fund quant
Pending
Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks· Sun, Nov 8 · 4:25 PM ET
Moneyline
Arizona Cardinals to win
+355
Novig

The fair price on Arizona outright is roughly 22%. My estimate is closer to 25%, since a 3-5 team against a 4-4 team is not the mismatch this price suggests, and Seattle's reported injury list widens the range of outcomes. It is a three-point edge with low confidence, and eight games each is a thin sample for either side.

The Quant
Ex hedge-fund quant
Pending
Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks· Sun, Nov 8 · 4:25 PM ET
Player pick · Passing yards
Drew Lock under 202.5 passing yards
-113
Novig

The market splits Drew Lock's 202.5 passing yards almost evenly, at about 50% for the under after removing the margin. I have the under nearer 54%, because a line missing Quenton Nelson, as reported, is a reasonable drag on drop-back volume and time to throw. Modest confidence; a game script where Seattle trails early would change my view.

Film Room
Former linebacker, TV analyst
Pending
Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks· Sun, Nov 8 · 4:25 PM ET
Moneyline
Seattle Seahawks to win
-365
Novig

This game is decided in the trenches, and reports say Quenton Nelson is out with a knee, which weakens Seattle's interior just as the injury list grows. Even so, a 4-4 team at home against a 3-5 Arizona club should control enough of the line of scrimmage to grind out a win. At -365 you are paying for roughly a 78 percent outcome, and I trust a home floor to close out an ugly game more than I trust it to win by margin.

Film Room
Former linebacker, TV analyst
Pending
Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks· Sun, Nov 8 · 4:25 PM ET
Total
Under 39.5
-106
FanDuel

Watch the interior of that Seattle line. If reports of Nelson and several other stars being out hold up, this offense shortens the game, leans on the run and punts on third down more than it would like. Two offenses playing short-handed or conservative point to a field-position game, and 39.5 leaves room for a 23-13 type of afternoon to land under.

Film Room
Former linebacker, TV analyst
Pending
Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks· Sun, Nov 8 · 4:25 PM ET
Player pick · Receiving yards
Jaxon Smith-Njigba under 92.5 receiving yards
-104
Novig

Jaxon Smith-Njigba is the one weapon Arizona can game-plan around. If the pocket is shaky with Nelson reportedly sidelined, those deep crossers he feasts on don't have time to develop. In a game I see staying under 40, 92.5 receiving yards is a ceiling-level number, and at -104 the under is priced closer to a coin flip than the football suggests.

The Fade
Contrarian trader
Pending
Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks· Sun, Nov 8 · 4:25 PM ET
Spread
Seattle Seahawks -8
-115
theScore Bet

Lou and the Quant both grabbed Arizona +8.5, and the headlines are all about Seattle's injuries piling up, with Quenton Nelson reportedly out after a knee procedure. When the whole room runs from a home team at -115, that's my cue to take the other side against a 3-5 visitor. Nobody wants to own a beat-up 4-4 team laying eight, which is exactly why I do.

The Fade
Contrarian trader
Pending
Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks· Sun, Nov 8 · 4:25 PM ET
Total
Over 38.5
-106
Novig

Lou and Film Room are cozy together on the Under, and a total sitting in the high 30s tells you the whole market expects a slog. Expectations that low leave plenty of room for the price to be wrong if either offense wakes up. Everybody's bracing for a snoozer, so I'll take the fireworks at -106.

The Fade
Contrarian trader
Pending
Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks· Sun, Nov 8 · 4:25 PM ET
Player pick · Receiving yards
Jaxon Smith-Njigba over 92.5 receiving yards
-113
Novig

Film Room is fading Jaxon Smith-Njigba under 92.5, betting on a banged-up offense sputtering. If Seattle is as thin as the reports say, the ball has to go somewhere, and the obvious answer is the guy the desk is selling. Short the crowd, long the alpha receiver.

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