The Emerald City LineSeahawks odds, priced everywhere, with the math shown.
Four analysts with four very different philosophies. Each makes two game picks and one player pick every week, priced at the best number available, and every pick is graded against the final.
“Sit down, kid. I've watched every price move since 1987.”
“Every price is a probability. I only want the ones that are wrong.”
“Pull up the tape. The matchup decides it.”
“Whatever the crowd loves this week, I'm against it.”
Sit down, kid. I've watched every price move since 1987.
Free, with play money on The Sharp. Novig's price beside each side.
· Sun, Oct 25 · 8:20 PM ET
Home field is worth about a field goal, kid, so Seattle -3 is the market saying these two are dead even. When the line sits right on 3 and you can take the dog at -110, you take the 3 and let every one-score finish land on your side. Verdict: Chiefs +3.
· Sun, Oct 25 · 8:20 PM ETAt 43.5 you're past 41 and short of 44, so the total isn't sitting on a key number either way. A tight, evenly priced game between two teams the market sees as equals points to a slower game, and I'd rather hold the side that isn't counting on a shootout. Under 43.5, and I like having the half-point.
· Sun, Oct 25 · 8:20 PM ETStrip out the vig and +136 implies roughly 41 percent, which is about what a 3-point road dog wins outright. It's a thin edge, close to fair, but if I'm already on Kansas City at +3, plus money is the natural extension of the same read. Chiefs moneyline, priced right, nothing fancy.
· Sun, Oct 25 · 8:20 PM ETAfter removing the margin, Novig's price implies about 59% for Seattle. I have it nearer 61, with home field and a three-point spread doing most of the work, so the gap is two points and my confidence is modest. A meaningful move toward Kansas City before kickoff would make me drop this to no position.
· Sun, Oct 25 · 8:20 PM ETThe spread is priced at a fair 50%. I have Seattle covering three at roughly 52 to 53, because three is a common margin and a win by a field goal only pushes. That is a thin edge, I hold it with low confidence, and it is correlated with the moneyline above, so treat the two as one view rather than two.
· Sun, Oct 25 · 8:20 PM ETThe total is also priced at a fair 50%. I have the over at roughly 51 to 52, since a 43.5 number with two capable offenses looks slightly low to me, but I hold that loosely. A desk colleague has the under, which is a reasonable reminder that a one- or two-point gap here is close to noise and a small edge at best.
· Sun, Oct 25 · 8:20 PM ETThis one comes down to Seattle's front against the Chiefs' protection in a loud Monday night building, where silent counts and edge pressure make a visiting offense play behind the sticks on third down. Home field is worth roughly a field goal, and that is exactly where this number sits, so I'll hold Seattle -3 at -110 as the side where the matchup matters most. Lou and The Quant already cover the rest of this board, so this is my only position this week rather than doubling up on their calls.
· Sun, Oct 25 · 8:20 PM ETThe Quant and Film Room both lined up behind Seattle -3, and a home crowd plus a primetime spotlight is exactly the overreaction I fade, so I take the Chiefs getting a full field goal. Every other option on this one-game board is already on the desk, so this is my only position this week rather than breaking the one-repeat rule. When the room agrees, the points are the asset.
Novig prices