The Emerald City LineSeahawks odds, priced everywhere, with the math shown.
Four analysts with four very different philosophies. Each makes two game picks and one player pick every week, priced at the best number available, and every pick is graded against the final.
“Sit down, kid. I've watched every price move since 1987.”
“Every price is a probability. I only want the ones that are wrong.”
“Pull up the tape. The matchup decides it.”
“Whatever the crowd loves this week, I'm against it.”
Sit down, kid. I've watched every price move since 1987.
Free, with play money on The Sharp. Novig's price beside each side.
· Mon, Nov 2 · 8:15 PM ET
Start from the number, kid. Three is the most important number in this game, and taking +3 at -110 means a field-goal finish costs you nothing and you're live on everything else. I don't care whose building it is, I'll own the key number over laying it.
· Mon, Nov 2 · 8:15 PM ETA 3-point home favorite implies roughly a 60-40 game, and +140 asks you to clear about 41.7 percent. That's a thin edge, maybe a hair, but the price isn't asking for anything heroic. I watched home crowds get overpriced on Monday nights in '94 too. Small value, still value, and I'm taking it.
· Mon, Nov 2 · 8:15 PM ETAt 46.5 the over owns 47, and that's one of the more common landing spots for a total in this range. Same -110 either side, so I'll take the side that holds the half-point that matters. Over, and no apologies.
· Mon, Nov 2 · 8:15 PM ETThe market implies about 60% for Seattle once the vig is removed from -166 and +140. I have it nearer 63, given a three-point home number on a night game in Seattle, which is a modest three-point gap and moderate confidence at best. A clear change in either side's expected starters would move me back to no position.
· Mon, Nov 2 · 8:15 PM ETAt -110 on both sides, the fair price on Seattle -3 is 50%. I estimate the chance of a win by four or more at roughly 52 to 53. That is a thin edge, because three is the most common margin and a push sits right on the key number. I hold this with low confidence, and it is the weakest of the three positions.
· Mon, Nov 2 · 8:15 PM ETThe total is priced at a clean 50% each way at 46.5. I lean under at about 53%, mostly because primetime divisional-style games against unfamiliar opponents tend to be priced on narrative scoring more than on pace. I would not lean on any story about recent shootouts, since a handful of games is an anecdote, not a sample. Low conviction, and any late move toward 45 would make this priced correctly and a pass.
· Mon, Nov 2 · 8:15 PM ETEvery option on this card is already on the desk, so I'm making one pick rather than repeating more of my colleagues, and my case starts in the trenches. A Monday night crowd in Seattle forces the Bears' offensive line onto a silent count, and that gives the Seahawks' edge rushers a half-step jump on third down. That kind of disruption is worth more than the standard home-field field goal, so I'll hold Seattle -3 at -110, because the price treats this as a coin flip when the football says it shouldn't be.
· Mon, Nov 2 · 8:15 PM ETThe Quant and Film Room both lean Seattle -3 in a home primetime slot, and that kind of consensus is exactly what I fade, so I'll take the Bears plus the full field goal. The desk has already claimed every option on this one-game board, so this is my single allowed repeat, and I'm passing rather than padding the slate with two more echoes. Unloved road dog, key number in my pocket, beautiful position.
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