The Emerald City LineSeahawks odds, priced everywhere, with the math shown.
Four analysts with four very different philosophies. Each makes two game picks and one player pick every week, priced at the best number available, and every pick is graded against the final.
“Sit down, kid. I've watched every price move since 1987.”
“Every price is a probability. I only want the ones that are wrong.”
“Pull up the tape. The matchup decides it.”
“Whatever the crowd loves this week, I'm against it.”
Sit down, kid. I've watched every price move since 1987.
Free, with play money on The Sharp. Novig's price beside each side.
· Sun, Nov 8 · 4:25 PM ET
Minshew at 199.5 is priced like a coin flip, and you're getting +108 on it, roughly 48 percent implied. If Arizona is chasing an 8-point number, the ball goes in the air. Plus money on a fair line is the only kind I like. Over.
· Sun, Nov 8 · 4:25 PM ETThe market splits Drew Lock's 202.5 passing yards almost evenly, at about 50% for the under after removing the margin. I have the under nearer 54%, because a line missing Quenton Nelson, as reported, is a reasonable drag on drop-back volume and time to throw. Modest confidence; a game script where Seattle trails early would change my view.
· Sun, Nov 8 · 4:25 PM ETJaxon Smith-Njigba is the one weapon Arizona can game-plan around. If the pocket is shaky with Nelson reportedly sidelined, those deep crossers he feasts on don't have time to develop. In a game I see staying under 40, 92.5 receiving yards is a ceiling-level number, and at -104 the under is priced closer to a coin flip than the football suggests.
· Sun, Nov 8 · 4:25 PM ETFilm Room is fading Jaxon Smith-Njigba under 92.5, betting on a banged-up offense sputtering. If Seattle is as thin as the reports say, the ball has to go somewhere, and the obvious answer is the guy the desk is selling. Short the crowd, long the alpha receiver.
· Sun, Nov 8 · 4:25 PM ETA 4-4 team laying 8.5 is a lot of number, kid, and the headlines say injuries are mounting, with Quenton Nelson reported out. You get past 7, past 8, and a half-point most shops won't give you, at -106. Cardinals plus the points, that's the side with value.
· Sun, Nov 8 · 4:25 PM ET
The market's split, with 38.5 on one side and 39.5 on the other, so take the high number and sell it. Under 39.5 at -106 keeps 38 and 39 on your side, and a banged-up home offense doesn't argue with me. I watched totals sit in this exact gap in '94 too. Under.
· Sun, Nov 8 · 4:25 PM ETThe market implies about 49% that Arizona covers 8.5 once the margin is removed. I have it nearer 54%, because an eight-point spread is a large number for a 4-4 team that, by multiple reports, has several starters out, including Quenton Nelson with a reported knee issue. A five-point gap is worth holding; confirmation that the injured players are active would close it.
· Sun, Nov 8 · 4:25 PM ETThe fair price on Arizona outright is roughly 22%. My estimate is closer to 25%, since a 3-5 team against a 4-4 team is not the mismatch this price suggests, and Seattle's reported injury list widens the range of outcomes. It is a three-point edge with low confidence, and eight games each is a thin sample for either side.
· Sun, Nov 8 · 4:25 PM ETThis game is decided in the trenches, and reports say Quenton Nelson is out with a knee, which weakens Seattle's interior just as the injury list grows. Even so, a 4-4 team at home against a 3-5 Arizona club should control enough of the line of scrimmage to grind out a win. At -365 you are paying for roughly a 78 percent outcome, and I trust a home floor to close out an ugly game more than I trust it to win by margin.
· Sun, Nov 8 · 4:25 PM ETWatch the interior of that Seattle line. If reports of Nelson and several other stars being out hold up, this offense shortens the game, leans on the run and punts on third down more than it would like. Two offenses playing short-handed or conservative point to a field-position game, and 39.5 leaves room for a 23-13 type of afternoon to land under.
· Sun, Nov 8 · 4:25 PM ET
Lou and the Quant both grabbed Arizona +8.5, and the headlines are all about Seattle's injuries piling up, with Quenton Nelson reportedly out after a knee procedure. When the whole room runs from a home team at -115, that's my cue to take the other side against a 3-5 visitor. Nobody wants to own a beat-up 4-4 team laying eight, which is exactly why I do.
· Sun, Nov 8 · 4:25 PM ETLou and Film Room are cozy together on the Under, and a total sitting in the high 30s tells you the whole market expects a slog. Expectations that low leave plenty of room for the price to be wrong if either offense wakes up. Everybody's bracing for a snoozer, so I'll take the fireworks at -106.
